Decision-support, not therapy
A science-backed model for the big decisions of your life.
Set your horizon, ask your question, and see how a choice is likely to shape your well-being over the next decade — with the uncertainty shown honestly. A map of tradeoffs, not a promise to make you happier.
See it in action ↓Should I take this job?
Pick an example person below. Everything you see is real output from the Arcwend model — no made-up numbers, and no data collected from you.
How this decision moves each part of life
Bands are wide because the model has only just met this persona — they tighten as someone re-checks in. A map of tradeoffs, not advice.
What’s shaping this persona’s satisfaction today
Changes a person in this situation could explore
The model projects what each change might do to this persona’s well-being over 10 years — with adaptation decay and evidence grade always shown. Not advice.
Effort (hrs/week) vs projected 10-yr gain. Dot colour: B stronger evidence C weaker evidence
D-grade levers (thin evidence — illustrative only)
Educational wellness content only. Not medical or psychological advice. All projections assume the persona maintains the change.
How it works
Population evidence
We start from decades of longitudinal well-being research — how real people's life satisfaction actually moves after big events.
Your situation
A short assessment tunes the model to you — your domains, your starting point — using only your own answers, never "people like you".
A 10-year simulation
The model runs thousands of possible futures under each choice, with life's randomness built in, and shows the spread honestly.
A real recommendation
It commits — it tells you which path looks better, or names the tradeoff explicitly when there isn't a clear winner. Never "it depends".
Built to be honest about uncertainty
Most of life's big decisions are genuinely close calls, and the evidence is graded, not gospel. Arcwend shows the full range of likely outcomes rather than a single confident line, marks how much it's guessing, and will publish a public calibration scoreboard — scoring its own predictions against held-out real-world data — so you can check whether it actually works.
- A Life events shift well-being, then most people partly adapt back — meta-analytic, replicated.
- A Unemployment and major health events show lasting effects, not full recovery.
- C The well-being effect of a sabbatical is plausible but thinly evidenced — shown with wide bands.
What Arcwend is — and isn't
It is
- A probabilistic projection of your well-being trajectory
- A way to compare big decisions side by side
- Transparent about what moved the projection, and how sure it is
It isn't
- Therapy, medical advice, or a crisis service
- A "happiness score" to chase
- A promise — it's a map of tradeoffs
Get early access
Arcwend is in development. Leave your email and we'll tell you when you can run your own decisions through the model.